:Product: 19960704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 186 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 7978
(S11E28), AN EMERGING BXO SPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY CAN BE CORRELATED TO A WEAK
SHOCK REPORTED ON 01 JULY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JUL  069
PREDICTED   05 JUL-07 JUL  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        04 JUL  069
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 JUL  014/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL  011/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL  005/008-005/006-005/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JUL-07 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01