:Product: 19960707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 189 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7978 (S10W11)
RE-EMERGED FROM SPOTLESS PLAGE TO A 17 SPOT CRI GROUP. THE
REGION PRODUCED A FEW B-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE MAGNETIC POLARITIES OF THE SPOTS IN THIS GROUP
ARE BETA CONFIGURATION, THE UNDERLYING MAGNETIC FIELDS SHOW
A MIXING OF FIELDS THROUGHOUT THIS REVERSE POLARITY GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 7978.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT A
PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS WAS REPORTED AT SEVERAL GEOMAGNETIC
OBSERVATORIES BETWEEN 0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JUL  072
PREDICTED   08 JUL-10 JUL  071/071/070
90 DAY MEAN        07 JUL  069
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 JUL  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JUL-10 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01