:Product: 19960708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7978 (S10W24) PRO-
DUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS TODAY. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS
A C1/SF AT 0900Z. THE GROUP EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT EMERGENCE
OF MAGNETIC FLUX OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FLUX EMERGENCE
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A REMARKABLE INCREASE IN SPOT AREA FROM
30 TO 210 MILLIONTHS OF A SOLAR HEMISPHERE. THE EMERGENCE
OF NEGATIVE POLARITY SPOTS THAT HAVE COMBINED WITH A CENTRAL,
POSITIVE POLARITY PORTION OF THE REGION HAVE LED TO THE FORM-
ATION OF A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 7978.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. A PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED AT HIGH
LATITUDES FROM 0600-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JUL  082
PREDICTED   09 JUL-11 JUL  082/082/082
90 DAY MEAN        08 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 JUL  012/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUL  011/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUL-11 JUL  010/008-010/008-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JUL-11 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05