:Product: 19960709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO AN X2.6/1B AT
09/0911Z FROM REGION 7978 (S10W37). THIS FLARE ROSE IMPULSIVELY
AND FELL QUICKLY OFF MAXIMUM BUT THE OVERALL DECAY WAS ABOUT
TWO HOURS LONG. A 10 CM BURST OF 1100 F.U. WAS OBSERVED BUT NO
TYPE II OR IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS WERE SEEN. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A CME WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION
7978 ALSO PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 09/0144Z. THE RAPID EMERGENCE OF
REGION 7978 REPORTED ON 08 JUL BEGAN TO ABATE DURING
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION REMAINED. (NOTE: THIS IS THE FIRST X-CLASS
FLARE SINCE NOV 1992.)
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 7978 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
EVENTS AS IT CONTINUES TO EMERGE AT ITS SLACKENED PACE. A
REPEAT OF AN X-CLASS FLARE FROM THIS REGION IS A POSSIBILITY
BUT NOT A LIKELIHOOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. AT
ISSUE TIME, NO ENERGETIC PROTONS HAD BEEN OBSERVED FROM THE
X2 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. AFTER THIS LONG OF A DELAY, IT IS
UNLIKELY SIGNIFICANT FLUXES WILL APPEAR.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF 11 JUL. FOLLOWING THAT TIME, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 12 JUL, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST
DUE TO THE FLARE AND POSSIBLE CME MENTIONED ABOVE. ISOLATED
MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE ON 11 JUL AND
EARLY ON 12 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    15/10/05
PROTON     10/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL  084
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  083/082/080
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 JUL  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  008/008-020/020-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/40/40
MINOR STORM           05/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10