:Product: 19960710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 192 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 7978 (S11W50)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 10/0343Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SMALL TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. SLIGHT DECAY WAS
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND THE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
BECAME LESS OBVIOUS. AREAS OF MIXED POLARITIES AND TIGHT
GRADIENTS REMAINED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
LOW TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THE FREQUENCY OF BOTH C AND
M-CLASS FLARES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DECAY. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE
FROM THIS REGION REMAINS, BUT IS LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL NEAR MIDDAY ON
11 JUL WHEN ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE X2 FLARE AND
SUSPECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION AT 09/0911Z. PERIODS OF
MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES LATE ON 11
JUL AND ON 12 JUL. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR 13 JUL AS THE DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    40/30/20
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL  080
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  079/078/077
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 JUL  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  020/020-025/025-012/018
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/40/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05