:Product: 19960711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 193 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 7978
(S11W64) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. DECAY
CONTINUED IN THIS REGION AND THE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
FADED DUE TO LOSS OF PENUMBRAE IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION.
SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINS BUT TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE
THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 7978 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY AS DECAY CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE
X2 FLARE AND SUSPECTED CME ON 09 JUL DID NOT ARRIVE AT THE
TIME EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE CME
INDICATES THAT IT WAS QUITE BROAD IN LONGITUDINAL EXTENT
AND TRAVELLING AT A VELOCITY OF APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 12 JUL. A 400 KM/S
VELOCITY OF THE CME EQUATES TO AN ARRIVAL TIME OF NEAR 1200Z
ON 12 JUL. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING LATE ON 12 JUL AND EARLY
ON 13 JUL ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORMING POSSIBLE.
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE ON 14 JUL AND UNSETTLED TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THAT DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
CLASS M    30/20/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUL  077
PREDICTED   12 JUL-14 JUL  076/074/070
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 JUL  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  020/020-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05