:Product: 19960712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 194 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION
7978 (S12W75) PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C4/1F FLARE AT
12/1532Z. A FILAMENT FADED DURING OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE THIS EVENT
AND SIGNIFICANT MASS MOTIONS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 7978
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED MAGNETICALLY
AS A SIMPLE BETA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE REGION 7978 ROTATES OVER THE
WEST LIMB. C-CLASS FLARES SHOULD BE INFREQUENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PERIOD.
RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
HAS NOT IMPACTED THE EARTH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 13-14 JUL WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS LATE ON 13 JUL AND EARLY ON
14 JUL. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 15 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
CLASS M    20/10/01
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUL  074
PREDICTED   13 JUL-15 JUL  072/069/068
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 JUL  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL  011/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL  015/012-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01