:Product: 19960714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED
AT 14/1500Z. THIS FLARE IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
REGION 7978, WHICH RECENTLY ROTATED BEYOND THE WEST LIMB, BY
EVIDENCE OF A TIME-COINCIDENT BRIGHT SURGE NEAR S13W90. THERE
ARE NOW NO NUMBERED REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JUL  068
PREDICTED   15 JUL-17 JUL  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        14 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 JUL  009/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01