:Product: 19960727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 209 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION 7981 (S12E70) IS THE LIKELY RETURN OF THE SUNSPOT GROUP
THAT PRODUCED AN X-CLASS FLARE ON 09 JULY. A FEW MATURE SPOTS
AND AN ASSOCIATED ACTIVE PROMINENCE ARE VISIBLE THERE. LIMB
PROXIMITY PROHIBITS A BETTER ANALYSIS. REGION 7980 (N10W15)
DECAYED TO A SPOTLESS PLAGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 7981
AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUL  073
PREDICTED   28 JUL-30 JUL  075/075/077
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 JUL  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  005/006-005/006-005/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01