:Product: 19960728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 210 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S10E60)
ROTATED FULLY INTO VIEW, AND CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED BUT
SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PLAGE. ONLY
B-CLASS X RAY FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 7981.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OF 10 NT WAS OBSERVED AT BOULDER AT 28/1307Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. INTERVALS OF NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS
MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUL  076
PREDICTED   29 JUL-31 JUL  078/080/082
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 JUL  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05