:Product: 19960729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 211 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S10E48) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. THIS REGION CONSISTS
OF TWO ABUTTED BIPOLES RESULTING IN A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE MATURE AND STABLE IN
WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC GRADIENTS ARE NOT HIGH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE
FROM REGION 7981.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
SOME SITES EXPERIENCED ACTIVE CONDITIONS BETWEEN
29/0300-0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUL  078
PREDICTED   30 JUL-01 AUG  079/080/080
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 JUL  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05