:Product: 19960731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JUL 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S09E21) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. OVERALL, THIS
REGION REMAINED STABLE. IN RECENT EUV IMAGES, A CORONAL
HOLE-LIKE FEATURE IS VISIBLE JUST TO THE EAST OF REGION 7981.
THIS FEATURE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DARK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. REGION 7981 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. BOTH MID AND HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED INTERMITTENT ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON 01-02 AUG. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 03 AUG.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JUL  080
PREDICTED   01 AUG-03 AUG  080/080/080
90 DAY MEAN        31 JUL  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 JUL  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  012/015-008/015-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 AUG-03 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01