:Product: 19960801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 214 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S09E10) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE MINOR B-CLASS SUBFLARES. X-RAY
IMAGES AFTER 01/1400Z SHOW A LARGE LOOP HAD FORMED IN THIS
REGION WITH HIGH INCLINATION TOWARD THE SOUTH POLE. OVERALL,
REGION 7981 IS IN SLOW DECAY. THE DARK EUV CORONAL HOLE LIKE
FEATURE MENTIONED ON 31 JUL WAS AN ARTIFACT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
7981 REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. RECENT SOLAR
WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IS IMPACTING THE
EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
BECAME HIGH NEAR 01/1615Z IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH SPEED
STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 02-04 AUG.
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 02-03 AUG.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH FOR AT LEAST
02-04 AUG.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 AUG  080
PREDICTED   02 AUG-04 AUG  080/080/079
90 DAY MEAN        01 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 31 JUL  019/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG  012/015-010/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05