:Product: 19960802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 215 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W05)
PRODUCED A FEW SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 7981 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE RANGED FROM
NORMAL TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 AUG  080
PREDICTED   03 AUG-05 AUG  080/080/078
90 DAY MEAN        02 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 01 AUG  015/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/010-010/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01