:Product: 19960803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 216 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W19)
IS STILL THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY AND REMAINS A CONSISTENT PRODUCER
OF SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY
FROM REGION 7981.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES WAS MODERATE
TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 AUG  079
PREDICTED   04 AUG-06 AUG  078/078/076
90 DAY MEAN        03 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 02 AUG  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG  010/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01