:Product: 19960805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 218 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W46)
HAS DECAYED FURTHER. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
THE LARGEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS A B5/SF AT 05/1424Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING MOSTLY QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 AUG  074
PREDICTED   06 AUG-08 AUG  072/070/068
90 DAY MEAN        05 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 04 AUG  009/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG  008/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01