:Product: 19960806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 219 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W58)
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE B-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 AUG  073
PREDICTED   07 AUG-09 AUG  070/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        06 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 05 AUG  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG  007/006-007/006-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01