:Product: 19960811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 224 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGION 7983 HAS LOST
IT SPOTS, BUT RETAINS SOME PLAGES.  REGION 7982 HAS TRIPLED IN
SIZE AND GROWN ABOUT 10 NEW SPOTS.  IT HAS ALSO BEEN CLASSIFIED
AS A DSO GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW WITH CHANCES OF C-CLASS FLARES INCREASING WITH THE
RATE AND AMOUNT OF GROWTH IN REGION 7982.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH LEVELS MOVING TOWARDS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 AUG  073
PREDICTED   12 AUG-14 AUG  073/073/072
90 DAY MEAN        11 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 AUG  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  005/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  007/005-010/008-007/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01