:Product: 19960814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 227 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7984 (N30E23)
WAS BORN ON THE DISK. ITS MAGNETIC ORIENTATION AND LATITUDE
ARGUE FOR IT BEING DESIGNATED AS A NEW CYCLE SPOT GROUP. IT IS
SIMPLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG  069
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  069/069/068
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 13 AUG  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  005/008-010/009-010/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05