:Product: 19960815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 228 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED SMALL X-RAY
INCREASES OCCURRED, LIKELY FROM REGION 7984 (N29E10). THIS SPOT
GROUP GREW SLIGHTLY, NOW SHOWING RUDIMENTARY PENUMBRA ON THE
LEADER SPOT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MILDLY ACTIVE
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 AUG  068
PREDICTED   16 AUG-18 AUG  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        15 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 AUG  013/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  010/010-010/008-010/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05