:Product: 19960819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 232 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR N10W13 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 7985.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE
LONGITUDES ARE DUE TO RETURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ACTIVITY LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE BRIEFLY REACHED
THE HIGH LEVEL AT 18/2145Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 AUG  068
PREDICTED   20 AUG-22 AUG  068/068/070
90 DAY MEAN        19 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 AUG  006/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG  006/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 AUG-22 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01