:Product: 19960820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 233 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. RECENT YOHKOH
X-RAY IMAGES SHOW FAINT EMISSION ABOVE THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE
OLD REGION 7981 IS DUE TO RETURN.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE RETURN OF OLD
REGION 7981 IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAISE ACTIVITY LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 AUG  069
PREDICTED   21 AUG-23 AUG  070/072/073
90 DAY MEAN        20 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 AUG  007/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 AUG-23 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01