:Product: 19960821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 234 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. RECENT YOHKOH
IMAGES SHOW OLD REGION 7981 AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. THE REGION IS
LESS BRIGHT THAN LAST ROTATION BUT SHOWED SOME LOOP DYNAMICS.
THIS REGION IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF A B1 ENHANCEMENT FROM
21/1415-1801Z. IT IS POSSIBLE A CME OCCURRED WITH THIS LONG
DURATION EVENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
A VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS
FLARE FROM OLD REGION 7981.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 AUG  070
PREDICTED   22 AUG-24 AUG  072/073/074
90 DAY MEAN        21 AUG  070
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 AUG  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 AUG  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 AUG-24 AUG  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 AUG-24 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01