:Product: 19960822RSGA.txt :Issued: 1996 Aug 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 235 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 AUG 1996 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C3 X-RAY EVENT OCCURED AT 22/0845Z ACCOMPANIED BY TYPES II AND IV SPECTRAL RADIO BURSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS FOLLOWED BY A LONG DURATION C4 X-RAY EVENT WHICH PEAKED AT 22/1003Z. NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 7981 AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE DOES EXIST WITH THE RETURN OF REGION 7981. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 22 AUG 073 PREDICTED 23 AUG-25 AUG 074/075/076 90 DAY MEAN 22 AUG 070 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG 005/005-008/008-008/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 10/10/10 MINOR STORM 05/05/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 From owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Thu Aug 22 18:40:24 1996 Received: by proton.sel.noaa.gov (1.37.109.18/16.2) id AA280563624; Thu, 22 Aug 1996 18:40:24 -0400 Return-Path: Date: Thu, 22 Aug 1996 22:40:23 GMT From: SESC To: forecast-send@proton.sel.noaa.gov Subject: SEC problems Sender: owner-forecast@proton.sel.noaa.gov Precedence: bulk Dear SEC Customer, SEC experienced a major problem with its main data base late on August 16. The data base was not restarted until August 19. During that time, the Outside User Systems (OUS) products could not update. Products issued since the data base recovered are being updated. The products missed between August 16-19 are still not available but should be restored over the next several days. These products will not be automatically emailed to majordomo customers. If you cannot access the missed products through the OUS Gopher or FTP please let us know and we will email them to you. We are sorry for the inconvenience this caused many of our customers. If we can be of further assistance please call. Sincerely, Viola Raben vraben@sec.noaa.gov Larry E. Combs (303) 497-5299 lcombs@sec.noaa.gov