:Product: 19960823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 236 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURED
AT 23/0721Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 7986 (S12E79)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS FLARE DOES EXIST WITH
THE NEW REGION 7986.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE
LONG DURATION EVENT WHICH OCCURED ON AUGUST 21ST.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 AUG  074
PREDICTED   24 AUG-26 AUG  075/076/077
90 DAY MEAN        23 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 AUG  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG  008/008-008/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 AUG-26 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05