:Product: 19960824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 237 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 7986 DOES HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE THE THIRD DAY DUE TO A RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 AUG  075
PREDICTED   25 AUG-27 AUG  076/077/078
90 DAY MEAN        24 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 AUG  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG  008/010-010/012-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05