:Product: 19960825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 238 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E54)
PRODUCED A C1/SF EVENT AT 25/1236Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW. REGION 7986 DOES HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE LEVELS MAY BE OBSERVED DUE TO A RECURRENT PATTERN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 AUG  075
PREDICTED   26 AUG-28 AUG  076/077/078
90 DAY MEAN        25 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 AUG  012/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  010/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05