:Product: 19960826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 239 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E43)
CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS, AND PRODUCED
FOUR OPTICALLY CORRELATED B-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD, THE LARGEST A B5/SF AT 26/1820Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED C0Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
EXCEEDED THE HIGH THRESHOLD AT 26/0835Z, DROPPEOXIMATELY 26/1400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED
MINOR STORM INTERVALS ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A
LARGE, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 AUG  074
PREDICTED   27 AUG-29 AUG  077/078/078
90 DAY MEAN        26 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 25 AUG  018/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  015/015-015/015-020/020
         20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10