:Product: 19960827RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 240 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E25)
PRODUCED TWO ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY CORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS, THE LARGEST A B5/SF AT 26/2320Z. THE REGION HAS
STABILIZED AND IS CURRENTLY A THREE SPOT HSX GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A CONTINUED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 7986 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT
ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AISOLATED PERIO
DS OF MINOR/MAJOR STORMING
ON DAY THREE, DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A LARGE, FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 AUG  074
PREDICTED   28 AUG-30 AUG  075/075/075
90 DAY MEAN        27 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 AUG  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  015/015-020/020-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/40
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/15