:Product: 19960828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 241 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E12)
PRODUCED A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT AT 28/0806Z. THE REGION APPEARS
STABLE AT THIS TIME AS A THREE SPOT HSX GROUP. A DSF, SEVEN
DEGREES LONG WITH A GEOMETRIC CENTER AT N28E43, WAS RECORDED
OVERNIGHT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A CONTINUED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS FROM REGION 7986.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN
INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR/MAJOR STORMING, ON DAYS
TWO AND THREE DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 AUG  073
PREDICTED   29 AUG-31 AUG  075/075/074
90 DAY MEAN        28 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 AUG  016/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/30
MINOR STORM           25/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/50/30
MINOR STORM           25/30/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/15/15