:Product: 19960829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 242 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12W00)
HAS EVOLVED INTO A TEN SPOT CSO GROUP, AND HAS REMAINED QUIET
SINCE GENERATING YESTERDAY'S C1/SF FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A DECREASED 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT FROM REGION 7986.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TOL HOLE. SOLAR WIND DATA RECEIVE
D TODAY FROM THE WIND
SPACECRAFT REVEALED VELOCITIES IN EXCESS OF 600 KM/S AND
DENSITIES IN THE 4-6 P/CC RANGE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH
RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR AND
MAJOR STORMING, AND THEN REVERTING BACK TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 AUG  074
PREDICTED   30 AUG-01 SEP  075/074/074
90 DAY MEAN        29 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 AUG  017/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  023/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  020/020-015/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 AUG-01 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/30/20
MINOR STORM           25/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/30/20
MINOR STORM           30/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05