:Product: 19960831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 244 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 AUG 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7986
(S13W26) PRODUCED A B5/SF AT 31/1547Z AND A LONG DURATION B8/SF
AT 31/1839Z. A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR N18E47 AND WAS NUMBERED
AS NEW REGION 7987.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
A VERY LOW LEVEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A C-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 7986.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED BETWEEN 31/0600-1200Z.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CONTINUED
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE
THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIME ON 01-02 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 AUG  076
PREDICTED   01 SEP-03 SEP  073/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        31 AUG  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 30 AUG  017/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG  013/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP  010/010-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 SEP-03 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01