:Product: 19960901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 245 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7986
(S12W42) EXHIBITED SLOW DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT A VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD DROP TO BACKGROUND LEVELS ON
02-03 SEP.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 SEP  074
PREDICTED   02 SEP-04 SEP  073/072/071
90 DAY MEAN        01 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 31 AUG  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 SEP-04 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01