:Product: 19960904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 248 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S10W81)
IS MAKING A QUIET LIMB TRANSIT, LEAVING A SPOTLESS DISK IN ITS
WAKE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
VARIED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 SEP  071
PREDICTED   05 SEP-07 SEP  070/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        04 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 SEP  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  003/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01