:Product: 19960907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 251 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. A SMALL NEW
CYCLE REGION EMERGED AT S26E02 AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 7988.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
DURING THE PERIOD. ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MID AND
HIGH LATITUDES IN THE 07/0600-0900Z INTERVAL. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE LOW TO
MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 08-09 SEP.
PRIMARILY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10 SEP WITH THE
RETURN OF A SMALL RECURRENT DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 SEP  070
PREDICTED   08 SEP-10 SEP  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        07 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 SEP  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  005/007-005/007-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 SEP-10 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01