:Product: 19960908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 252 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED VERY LOW. REGION 7988
(S25W12) DECAYED AND WAS SPOTLESS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET ON 09 SEP. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10-11 SEP. ISOLATED ACTIVE
INTERVALS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 SEP  068
PREDICTED   09 SEP-11 SEP  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        08 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 07 SEP  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  006/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  005/007-010/009-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 SEP-11 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/20/20
MINOR STORM           01/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05