:Product: 19960911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 255 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
THERE ARE NO NUMBERED ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM MENTIONED YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED
BY THE END OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 SEP  068
PREDICTED   12 SEP-14 SEP  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        11 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 10 SEP  034/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP  020/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP  015/013-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 SEP-14 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           30/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/30
MINOR STORM           30/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05