:Product: 19960912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 256 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
NEW REGION 7989 (N29E12) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 SEP  068
PREDICTED   13 SEP-15 SEP  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        12 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 11 SEP  020/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 SEP  020/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 SEP-15 SEP  010/013-010/010-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 SEP-15 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05