:Product: 19960913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 257 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 SEP  067
PREDICTED   14 SEP-16 SEP  068/068/068
90 DAY MEAN        13 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 12 SEP  025/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 SEP  014/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 SEP-16 SEP  015/010-010/005-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 SEP-16 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05