:Product: 19960915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 259 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  NO FLARES OCCURRED
AS THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINS SPOTLESS AND ESSENTIALLY
FEATURELESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS REMAIN AT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 SEP  066
PREDICTED   16 SEP-18 SEP  069/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        15 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 14 SEP  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 SEP-18 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05