:Product: 19960916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 260 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS QUIET AND SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF
MINOR STORMING OCCURRING DURING THE INTERVAL 16/0600-0900Z.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED INTERVALS OF MINOR
STORMING, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 SEP-19 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 SEP  068
PREDICTED   17 SEP-19 SEP  068/069/070
90 DAY MEAN        16 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 SEP  015/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP  020/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 SEP-19 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05