:Product: 19960917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 261 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINED SPOTLESS FOR A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RECORDED AT 17/0000-0300Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 SEP-20 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 SEP  069
PREDICTED   18 SEP-20 SEP  068/069/070
90 DAY MEAN        17 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 16 SEP  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 SEP-20 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05