:Product: 19960918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 262 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW AS THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 SEP-21 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 SEP  069
PREDICTED   19 SEP-21 SEP  069/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        18 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 17 SEP  008/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP  022/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP  020/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 SEP-21 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05