:Product: 19960919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 263 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A BROAD DIFUSE
AREA OF X-RAY EMISSION IS VISIBLE NEAR S10E90 WHERE OLD REGION
7986 IS RETURNING. NO SPOTS AND ONLY FAINT PLAGE ARE VISIBLE
IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME SITES BETWEEN
19/1500-1800Z. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW AN INCREASE IN
DENSITY WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER WIND SPEED THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE PROBABLE DURING THAT
TIME. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL
MINOR STORMING.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 SEP  069
PREDICTED   20 SEP-22 SEP  070/070/071
90 DAY MEAN        19 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 SEP  017/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 SEP  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 SEP-22 SEP  012/015-012/015-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 SEP-22 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05