:Product: 19960920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 264 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SOLAR
ACTIVITY OF NOTE, EXCEPT THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A SMALL FILAMENT
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.THE DISK REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM.
RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATES A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED
SOLAR WIND STREAM. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE WERE MODERATE TO HIGH. THE ELECTRON FLUX CROSSED
ALERT THRESHHOLD AT 20/1420Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 SEP  069
PREDICTED   21 SEP-23 SEP  070/070/072
90 DAY MEAN        20 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 SEP  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP  031/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 SEP-23 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05