:Product: 19960921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 265 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO ACTIVITY
OF SIGNIFICANCE. THE DISK REMAINS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES WERE AT HIGH LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP  070
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  070/072/072
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 20 SEP  037/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05