:Product: 19960922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 266 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED BETWEEN QUIET AND MINOR STORM
LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS BETWEEN 22/0600-0900Z.
SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. THE NORTHERN POLAR HOLE IS THE
PROBABLE SOURCE OF THIS STREAM THAT BEGAN AROUND 10 SEP.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WERE
PREDOMINANTLY HIGH AND APPROACHED VERY HIGH LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THAT TIME. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 SEP  069
PREDICTED   23 SEP-25 SEP  069/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        22 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 21 SEP  024/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  021/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  018/015-018/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 SEP-25 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/15