:Product: 19960923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 267 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINS
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 SEP-26 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON    EDICTED   24 SEP-26 SEP  069/069/069
90 DAY MEAN        23 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 22 SEP  022/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP  020/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP  020/020-025/035-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 SEP-26 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/25
MINOR STORM           20/40/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/30
MINOR STORM           35/40/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/20/10