:Product: 19960924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 268 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS THE HIGH
SOLAR WIND SPEEDS HAVE ABATED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ANOTHER HIGH SPEED STREAM IS ANTICIPATED.
THIS RECURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD END BY 27 SEPTEMBER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 SEP  070
PREDICTED   25 SEP-27 SEP  070/070/070
90 DAY MEAN        24 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 SEP  022/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP  025/030-020/025-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/35
MINOR STORM           30/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           35/30/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/05/10