:Product: 19960925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1996 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 269 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 SEP 1996
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS AGAIN
SPOTLESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES AND QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A HIGH SPEED STREAM. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 SEP-28 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 SEP  071
PREDICTED   26 SEP-28 SEP  071/071/070
90 DAY MEAN        25 SEP  071
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 24 SEP  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP  020/025-015/015-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 SEP-28 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/30
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/30
MINOR STORM           30/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10